FOMC meeting minutes released April 2 showed 8 of 12 voting members now favor a 25bps cut at the June 2026 meeting, up from 5 of 12 in January. Markets immediately repriced: BTC CME June futures premium widened to 4.1% (equivalent to 28% annualized basis trade yield), Nasdaq futures rose 1.8%, and gold hit a new ATH of $3,480. For crypto specifically, the macro tailwind of a confirmed easing cycle coinciding with Bitcoin's post-halving supply squeeze and institutional ETF inflows creates what analysts are calling a "perfect storm" setup.
Bitcoin's correlation with risk-on assets temporarily spiked to 0.72 before decoupling upward as BTC-specific catalysts (ETF flows, on-chain accumulation) dominated. Options market now pricing 35% probability of BTC above $120K by August 2026.